Quick Economic Recovery Optimism Wanes

Anyone else caught up in an amazing whirl-wind of seemingly endless new piles of idunnowhat since Jan 4?   Hard to believe a month of 2010 has seemed to just jam on by.

Whether you had the last 2 weeks of ’09 off or tried to polish as much as possible before year end, almost everyone I’ve talked to has seen an onslaught of renewed vengeance into business activity that seemed to be paced with undeniable optimism.  The pains of ’09 are behind us, right?  Er, at least that’s what we thought.   We were all immensely excited to move beyond the last year of the decade.   The holiday season seemed to be filled with hope that at long last the recession was ending.   And, 2010 will be filled with glorious growth and the taste of prosperity.

Brace yourself for more ’09
When Jan 2010 started, it appeared that everyone had quickly forgotten about ’09.   And, for good reason.   Last year was challenging in many, many ways.   A new year brings renewed budgets, a chance to re-start, a chance to reach back to those contacts that said “yea, let’s touch base in January”.   What’s transpired so far appears to be an over-flowing bucket of messages, requests, schedules, deadlines, budgets, and most important — defining and delivering on our target goals.  This is testing everyone’s ability to get organized, to be organized, and the realization that not much has changed.   I am also reminded that at the end of the day our schedules are really dictated by our networks of contacts, family, and business events and rarely by ourselves.  It’s really hard to control.   What ever happened to those days when I had time to blissfully fall asleep on the couch in front of the basketball game?  Those seem like decades ago.  Oh…it was.

Look at what we’ve seen in 2010 already:

  • Federal budget deficit will be worse in 2010.  Now estimated $1.6Trillion.  Up from $1.4 Trillion in ’09.  Disgusting.
  • Transit agencies fighting to close budget shortfalls.   In the San Francisco Bay Area, we’ve already heard woes from BART, Muni, and Caltrain.  I’m sure there’s many more metros and cities in the same boat.
  • Layoffs and restructuring.  Chevron, Verizon, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson have all announced layoff plans in Jan. 2010.
  • Current unemployment rate is 9.7 (December ’09).  There were increases in all 50 states in the last month of the year.
  • Live events canceled, postponed.  2010 will be filled with inconsistencies.  some events that will trigger renewed hope;  Other events  you’ll be caught asking yourself  “how did I ever get involved in this?”
  • The Dow closed the year (Dec. 31) at10,428.05 and NASDAQ was 2,269.15.   By January 31, it’s 10,067.33 for the Dow, and 2,147.35 for NASDAQ.  Investors are not exactly oozing with consistent confidence.
  • There’s still a war in Afghanistan, Mr. President.

OK, enough of the doom and gloom
Yea, I had to dig deep here, but let’s look at some areas that are looking good in 2010.

  • Apple.  Stock (AAPL) at all-time highs.  Cool consumer electronics are continuing to be the rage.  And, for a few hundred dollars, people are willing to try almost anything Apple.
  • Venture capital improving and business results stabilizing.  Upstream has received $75Million in venture capital.   Ford reports strong January sales (could be due to Toyota’s accelerating disaster).   UPS beat expectations, which shows packages are on the move and internet sales are continuing to grow.   Expect more turn-around news in the areas of home purchasing and financing.
  • Businesses are adopting social marketing into their operations and not just using the free stuff.  Real $ being spent, department resources being re-shaped.  This isn’t an after-thought anymore of some rogue employees.  It’s mainstream and if you ain’t doing it or not supporting the efforts, you’re losing out to your competitors.  Big time.
  • Many green businesses are thriving.  Great source of jobs, economic growth, and investment into the future.
  • Microsoft Office 2010 is in Beta – that should solve a few issues, right?   Oh, possibly negated by introducing a million new Windows bugs and 100 security patches.

Personal brain hygiene perhaps
Do you really feel you can accomplish everything on your plate by just coming in and grinding it out like you’ve done for the last 30 days?  I want to suggest a few ideas that might get you back on track.   Sure, it can’t change the deficit or solve the war.   It can’t balance an ill-allocated municipal budget.   But, it will make you feel better and more productive.

5 things you need to do.

  1. Clean up. Take a look at the papers and magazines on your desk.   Shuffle them into 1 neat pile and set it in the corner.   Check back in a week.  If you haven’t touched the pile, recycle it.  You’ll probably never have time to read them this year.
  2. Organize your inbox.  Find a 3 hour window on your calendar next week.   Block it off.   And book yourself a conference room regardless if you live in a cube or an office.  No one bothers you in a conference room — they think you’re in a meeting.  While you’re at it, turn off your mobile phone, and log out of social networks — particularly Facebook and Twitter.  You’ll survive.  At the end of your 3 hour one on one meeting, write down the 10 most important items you’ll work on next.
  3. Plan a vacation with family or friends.   Even if only for 1 nite.  Perhaps you went away at end of December and came back to work and it’s been go-go-go.   You need something to look forward to.
  4. Stay focused on value-add vendors.   This is a two-fold suggestion.  It means #1 – shortlist your vendors that are viable and let the rest go, and #2 – make a decision, sign agreements, generate POs, build a plan, and start executing.   Everyday you postpone is 1 more day you don’t have a solution and won’t be addressing your MBOs.
  5. Attend a seminar outside of your business domain.  Perhaps you have a hobby or new interest.  Find a local event or seminar and make plans to go.  Meet some new people and get your mind on something fresh.

Worth considering?   Any other ideas that are personally helping you?   Or, do you believe 2010 will be way easier than ’09?

I have no doubts we will exit 2010 in a far more prosperous situation than ’09 and way beyond ’08.   Until then, address your own productivity now…it’s only going to get harder.

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